As New York City heads toward a pivotal mayoral election, unease among the city’s wealthiest residents is reshaping the high-end housing landscape beyond its borders. With Democratic Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani leading in polls and pledging sweeping tax and housing reforms, brokers in nearby suburbs say they’re witnessing a striking shift in sentiment—and sales.
Across Westchester County, northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut, agents report that affluent city dwellers are acting fast, locking in properties before potential policy changes take effect
“Affluent New Yorkers concerned about the upcoming election—with Zohran Mamdani leading in the polls—are driving a surge in demand for suburban markets within commuting distance to the city. Areas like Greenwich, Darien, and New Canaan, Connecticut, are seeing prices climb rapidly as high-income buyers look to relocate in anticipation of potential tax increases and policy changes.” said Mark S. Fisher, regional Vice President, UNMB Hoam Loans Inc.
That urgency is showing up in the data. Pending home sales in Westchester are up roughly 15% from a year ago, while average showing activity has climbed more than 25% since midsummer, according to Compass agents Zach and Heather Harrison. “Concerns about higher taxes, safety, and a desire for more space are driving people to act quickly,” said Zach Harrison. “We’re seeing bidding wars well into the multimillion-dollar range.”
The rush has been so widespread that local agents have coined a term for it—the “Mamdani effect.” High-net-worth buyers from Manhattan and Brooklyn are placing offers sight unseen, often hundreds of thousands of dollars above asking, in a bid to outpace rivals. “It feels like the pandemic all over again, but with more urgency,” Heather Harrison said.
That sense of déjà vu is supported by market metrics. Nationwide, inventory has been growing for nearly two years, yet supply in affluent New York suburbs remains scarce. Realtor.com’s October Housing Report shows a 15.3% annual rise in active listings nationally, but that growth is tapering, with homes spending an average of 63 days on the market—five more than a year ago. In contrast, suburban markets ringing New York City are accelerating, defying the national slowdown.
Lucyk’s team recently handled a Fair Lawn property that sold 8% above list and another in Cedar Grove that drew 17 competing offers. “Inventory is tight and the political climate is pushing people to act,” Lucyk said. “Lower mortgage rates are only adding fuel.”
Luxury enclaves like Greenwich, Conn., are seeing similar dynamics. Mark Pruner of Compass said inventory there is down more than 80% from 2019, leaving just 2.7 months of supply overall. “Contracts have surged in the past five weeks,” Pruner said, noting several listings that sold within days, including a $2.4 million home that fetched $2.96 million. “This is the strongest top-end market we’ve seen in years.”
For mortgage professionals, the lesson is clear: while the broader housing market cools, politically driven demand among affluent buyers is generating a new pocket of heat. Lenders catering to jumbo borrowers may find opportunity in this moment of uncertainty—especially as rate-sensitive, high-income clients rush to secure suburban stability before New York’s political winds shift once again.
