It’s been over a year since the election signaled a reboot of President Trump’s administration, and nearly a full year since inauguration. Here in Vero Beach, Florida—a serene coastal gem on the Treasure Coast known for its pristine beaches, luxury oceanfront estates, and charming small-town vibe—the real estate market has felt the ripples of national policy shifts amid our local dynamics.
A year ago, markets nationwide were frozen, but Vero Beach's barrier island and mainland properties continued to attract affluent relocators seeking privacy and Florida's tax advantages. In my annual reflections last year, I examined key campaign promises impacting housing. Now, with 2025 drawing to a close, let's assess those predictions—locally flavored for our Indian River County community—and peer into 2026.
What I Predicted & What Happened: Vero Beach Lens
1. Tax Policy
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) made 2017 tax cuts permanent, boosted SALT deductions, added senior benefits, and exempted tips/overtime. This aligns with predictions and delivers wins for Vero Beach's luxury segment: high-end buyers (often cash-heavy relocators) and investors in oceanfront homes or developments benefit immensely from favorable capital gains and deductions.
Here locally, Vero Beach stands out as America's strongest cash-driven luxury market in 2025, with affluent buyers insulated from rate sensitivity. Tax perks have fueled demand for properties in exclusive enclaves like Riomar or John's Island.
Yet, as forecasted, added deficits fuel inflation, pushing bond yields and mortgage rates up post-passage. For Vero's more rate-sensitive mainland buyers or condo seekers, this tempered enthusiasm despite improving affordability.
2. Reduced Building Regulations
Federal red tape cuts for environmental reviews helped some projects, but housing supply decisions remain local. In Vero Beach, new construction faces hurdles from county growth management and post-hurricane resilience standards.
Experts warn of heightened climate risks—Vero faces extreme hurricane wind exposure and rising billion-dollar disaster tolls. Deregulation may accelerate some builds, but our community prioritizes storm-hardened homes (elevated, impact-resistant) to mitigate risks. No major workforce training surge materialized, and immigration reliance persists, leaving labor shortages unaddressed in Florida's construction sector (38% immigrant workforce vulnerable to policies).
5. Tariffs on Imported Goods
Tariffs hit 1930s-scale levels, driving construction costs up ~9% nationally in 2025. Locally, this exacerbated material prices for lumber, steel, and imports, slowing new builds needed to ease affordability.
In Vero Beach, moderating prices (median around $380K-$430K, with some softening) and surging inventory (up significantly, shifting to buyer-friendly) reflect this: higher costs restrict supply, but also cool rapid appreciation. Tariffs contributed to slight inflation, giving the Fed room for rate cuts—benefiting our market where rates hovered above 6%.
6. Mortgage Rates
Rates improved modestly in 2025, largely from broader economic factors rather than direct administration influence. Presidential Fed pressure continues, with a new Chair appointment looming.
In Vero, cash-dominant luxury sales thrived regardless, but mainland and condo buyers (days on market stretching to 100+) welcomed relief. Rates track Treasuries; any Fed confidence erosion could surprise.
Overall 2025 Vero Beach: Inventory loosened dramatically (Florida leads nationally in listings surge), rates dipped, sales rose in segments (single-family closings up), and affordability improved slightly despite sticky costs. Prices mixed—up YoY in spots but moderating overall—creating opportunities for buyers in our buyer's market tilt.
Trump’s Housing Impact 2026 & Beyond: Vero Beach Outlook
The administration targeted affordability, with mixed national results. Locally, tax wins shine for Vero's high-net-worth influx, drawing Northeast relocators to our low-key luxury lifestyle.
I'm optimistic on potential rate declines but cautious on inflation/tariffs hampering construction amid our hurricane vulnerabilities. New ideas like 50-year or portable mortgages could aid mobility—relevant here where snowbirds and retirees often relocate.
Looking to 2026: Balanced market with more choices, stable luxury demand, and resilience focus. Priced-right properties move fast; overpriced linger. For Vero Beach sellers and buyers, expertise in navigating policy waves and local charms (beaches, golf, privacy) remains key.
Whether upgrading to the oceanfront or investing in the mainland, Vero Beach offers enduring appeal in uncertain times. Stay tuned—our market's trajectory points upward with prudent navigation.
