Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2021

According to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (one of the economy’s key inflation gauges), prices increased 2.2% in August compared to the prior year. Minus more volatile prices such as food and energy, prices increased 2.7%. Month-over-month, there was only a 0.1% increase in the price index during August.

July saw a slight increase in price growth (2.5% compared to 2.4% a month prior in June). August’s results, though, are the lowest level of annual inflation since February 2021. 

The Federal Reserve made an aggressive rate cut earlier in September, slashing interest rates by 50 basis points. The August PCE, which is even lower than previously projected by Dow Jones and inches away from the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation, suggests the Fed’s rate cut was an appropriate response. 

Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, projected that the September PCE report (to be released in October) will show 2% inflation. 

Whether the Federal Reserve will respond with further rate cuts or merely hold its ground remains to be seen. The first rate cut already appears to have sparked at least some movement in the housing market, but the pace and extent of future cuts could have big implications for near-term real estate activity. 

Omair Sharif, an economist at Inflation Insights, said (via the Financial Times), “If the Fed wants to cut by another 50 basis points in November, the inflation data isn’t going to stand in their way.” 

Personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). 

Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $34.2 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.2 billion (0.2 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in August and real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods increased less than 0.1 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 3 and 4).

The increase in current-dollar personal income in August primarily reflected an increase in compensation that was partly offset by a decrease in personal income receipts on assets (table 2).

The $47.2 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in August reflected an increase of $54.8 billion in spending for services and a decrease of $7.6 billion in spending for goods (table 2). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were housing as well as financial services and insurance. Within goods, the largest contributor to the decrease was spending for new motor vehicles. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.5U.

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $48.3 billion in August (table 2). Personal saving was $1.05 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.8 percent (table 1).

Prices

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.1 percent (table 5). Prices for goods decreased 0.2 percent and prices for services increased 0.2 percent. Food prices increased 0.1 percent and energy prices decreased 0.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 2.2 percent (table 7). Prices for goods decreased 0.9 percent and prices for services increased 3.7 percent. Food prices increased 1.1 percent and energy prices decreased 5.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.7 percent from one year ago.

Real PCE

The 0.1 percent increase in real PCE in August reflected an increase of less than 0.1 percent in spending on goods and an increase of 0.2 percent in spending on services (table 4). Within goods, the largest contributor to the increase was other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products). Within services, the largest contributor the increase was recreation services (led by gambling). Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.6U.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Today’s release presents results from the annual update of the National Economic Accounts. The revisions for income and consumer spending estimates begin with January 2019. Monthly estimates for January through March of 2024 include revisions resulting from the incorporation of first-quarter wage and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Estimates for wages and salaries for April through July of 2024 have been updated to reflect revised monthly data from the BLS Current Employment Statistics program.

Revised and previously published changes in monthly personal income, DPI, PCE, personal saving as a percentage of DPI, real DPI and real PCE are shown in table 8 of this release. Updated quarterly and annual estimates of personal income and outlays were presented as part of the third estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2024 on September 26, 2024.

source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2024