As 2025 draws to a close with another year of stagnant home sales nationwide, there's growing excitement for what's ahead. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), forecasts a robust 14% increase in existing-home sales for 2026, marking a potential double-digit surge after years of subdued activity.
Yun shared this optimistic outlook at the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum during NAR NXT in Houston. "Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales," he said. New-home sales are also expected to climb 5%, supported by steady builder activity.
Prices won't take a hit either—Yun assures that "home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining," with NAR projecting a 4% rise in 2026, backed by job growth and ongoing supply constraints.
Building Momentum: Rates, Jobs, and Buyer Interest
Early signs of recovery are already emerging. Mortgage applications have consistently outpaced last year's figures, with recent surges up to 31% year-over-year. Job gains remain solid, builders are adding inventory, and mortgage rates have eased from 7% highs to around 6.24%.
Yun predicts rates averaging 6% in 2026, providing modest affordability relief. Even small drops can unlock significant demand, especially as Federal Reserve cuts continue.
A Tale of Two Markets: Haves vs. Have-Nots
The rebound won't be uniform. The upper-end market thrives with stronger inventory and affluent buyers, while entry-level segments face tight supply.
NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz highlighted the divide: First-time buyers fell to a record low 21% in 2025 (vs. a 40% historical norm), with a median age of 40 due to high rents, student debt, and childcare costs.
Repeat buyers, particularly cash-rich baby boomers, dominate. Education on down payment assistance and FHA loans could help bridge the gap.
Seller Lessons: The Return of Price Adjustments
Longer days on market mean sellers must price realistically. MLS data shows average reductions scaling with time listed:
- 0–14 days: 4.9%
- 15–30 days: 6.1%
- 31–60 days: 7.3%
- 61–90 days: 9%
- 91–120 days: 10.6%
- Over 120 days: 13.8%
Nationally, expect 3% growth in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
Vero Beach: A Cash-Strong Gem Poised for the Uptick
In beautiful Vero Beach on Florida's Treasure Coast, the market aligns well with national trends but shines with unique strengths.
Known for serene beaches, upscale yet relaxed living, and an astonishing 62.7% all-cash transactions—the highest nationally—Vero Beach appeals to affluent buyers less sensitive to rates.
Throughout 2025, the market has shown balance: modest price softening (median around $371K–$429K, with some segments down slightly year-over-year), surging single-family sales in certain periods, and increased inventory giving buyers options. Luxury oceanfront and barrier island properties remain resilient, fueled by relocators seeking privacy and lifestyle.
As rates drift lower in 2026, expect renewed energy—more transactions in mid-priced homes, potential stabilization or modest gains in values, and Vero's cash-heavy profile insulating it from volatility. With Florida's ongoing migration draw and Vero's value compared to South Florida hotspots, this coastal haven is well-positioned for the national rebound.
Fundamentals stay strong: low delinquencies, high equity, and steady jobs. For Vero Beach buyers and sellers, 2026 could bring the surge we've been waiting for—more activity, better affordability, and continued appeal in paradise.
If you're eyeing Vero Beach's beaches and neighborhoods, now's the time to prepare for the wave ahead
