As 2025 draws to a close, the national real estate narrative for 2026 points to a steady, if cautious, rebound: moderate economic growth, rising incomes outpacing inflation, slight improvements in affordability, and evolving migration patterns favoring the Sun Belt. Amid murky government data and lingering affordability stresses, consumer spending remains robust; job mobility slows, and sectors like health care drive expansion. But while headlines focus on broad trends, savvy buyers and investors are eyeing Florida's Treasure Coast—specifically Vero Beach and Hutchinson Island—as prime beneficiaries. These barrier island havens blend coastal allure with relative affordability, drawing migrants from pricier South Florida spots and positioning themselves for outsized gains in a normalizing market.
Steady Growth and Rising Paychecks Fuel Local Demand
Nationally, the economy is projected to chug along at about 2.5% annual GDP growth, driven by consumer spending (up 5.4% annually over the past three years) and business investments. Wages have outpaced inflation at 3.9% versus 2.9% recently, with disposable income growing even faster at 5.7%. In 2026, Oxford Economics forecasts this trend continuing, bolstering household confidence and homebuying power.
Zooming into the Treasure Coast, this translates to a vibrant local scene. Florida's overall job growth is expected to moderate but remain strong at 2.0–2.4% in 2026, with unemployment hovering around 3.0–3.4%. Vero Beach and Hutchinson Island, part of the broader Central Florida region, should see steady expansion, particularly in health care—a sector adding 231,000 jobs nationally and leading growth. Florida's health care employment is projected to surge due to an aging population, with roles in hospitals, clinics, and senior living facilities clustering around areas like Vero Beach's Cleveland Clinic Indian River Hospital. This influx supports demand for nearby housing, from oceanfront condos on Hutchinson Island to gated communities in Vero.
Business investments in software, machinery, and buildings are forecasted to rise 3.5%, further stabilizing the region. With personal debt payments at historic lows (11.2% of income), locals and newcomers alike have more room to invest in real estate, keeping the market resilient.
Affordability Edges Up: Treasure Coast's Edge Over National Averages
Affordability remains a pain point nationwide, with mortgage payments eating up 42.5–45% of median income for a median-priced home—up from 28% pre-pandemic. House prices are expected to inch up 1.9% in 2026, below historical norms, while incomes grow faster, offering slight relief. Mortgage rates likely won't dip below 4%, but stabilization around 6% could ease entry.
In Vero Beach and Hutchinson Island, the story is even brighter. Vero's cost of living is 5% below the national average and 14% cheaper than typical Florida cities, making it a standout for retirees and families. Median home values here hover around $370K–$380K, with barrier island luxury holding steady—far more accessible than West Coast hotspots where homes exceed five times median income. Hutchinson Island South saw median prices rise 17.9% to $543K in November 2025, but year-over-year trends show homes selling after 167 days on market, signaling a buyer's shift with inventory up 10–15%.
Compare that to national projections: a median home price of $420K in 2026. Vero and Hutchinson offer oceanfront gems at fractions of Miami or Palm Beach prices, with low crime (1.5 per 1,000 in Vero) and wellness-focused amenities like eco-friendly builds and community trails drawing buyers. Experts predict modest appreciation—around 1.8% nationally, but local agents see Vero's market remaining active yet less volatile, with stabilized rates encouraging more transactions.
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Metric
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Vero Beach
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Hutchinson Island
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National Average (Projected 2026)
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Median Home Price
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$370K–$438K
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$529K–$543K
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$420K
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Cost of Living vs. National
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5% below
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Comparable to Vero
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Baseline
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Price Appreciation Forecast
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Modest (1-2%)
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Steady (flat to modest gains)
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1.9%
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Inventory Trend
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Up 10-15% YoY
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Decreased 1.84% MoM, but rising overall
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Increasing moderately
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This table highlights why the Treasure Coast provides better value, reducing stress for buyers eyeing relocations without massive pay cuts.
Slowing Job Switches, But Sun Belt Migration Persists
Job mobility is cooling nationally, with turnover declining and unemployment stabilizing at 4.3% by end-2026, adding 453,000 jobs. This could limit cross-city moves but also encourage commitment to affordable areas.
For Vero Beach and Hutchinson Island, the Sun Belt allure endures. Over 35 years, regions like this have seen job growth outpace in the Northeast and Midwest, and 2026 forecasts a continuation, albeit slower (e.g., 0.5% in nearby Las Vegas, but rebounding in manufacturing and health care). Health care's 231,000 new jobs will favor senior-friendly spots like these, boosting demand near assisted-living facilities.
Migration data shows a "quiet shift" inland and quieter coasts: South Florida buyers are flocking to Vero for its beach alternative vibe, with median prices at $438K attracting those fleeing high-insurance areas. Florida's inbound moves dipped to 50% in 2025, but the Treasure Coast bucks the trend, drawing from expensive cities like LA and NYC. Relocation guides highlight Port St. Lucie, Stuart, and Vero as hotspots, with boutique custom homes and inland retirement communities gaining traction.
A Normalized Market: Opportunity in Vero and Hutchinson
Post-COVID chaos is fading, with inventory rising, prices moderating, and sales poised for a 14% uptick per NAR. Nationally, existing-home sales may rise 1.7% to 4.13 million.
Locally, 2026 spells renewed momentum, especially in luxury. Vero's market is less volatile, with spring updates noting strong buyer demand for wellness features. Hutchinson Island's oceanfront scene sees pending sales surging, mirroring statewide boosts. Inventory growth offers choices, and with rates around 6%, it's a seller's market turning balanced—ideal for opportunistic moves.
In summary, while the U.S. market turns toward normalcy, Vero Beach and Hutchinson Island embody the best of 2026: Sun Belt growth, health care-driven jobs, migration inflows, and affordability that outshines peers. If you're plotting your next chapter, this slice of Florida's Treasure Coast isn't just recovering—it's thriving.
Click here to view luxury homes or condos in Vero Beach or on Hutchison Island
