Written by Ben Bryk Coldwell Banker Global Luxury
In 2026, the U.S. housing market is expected to remain steadier but far from booming. Mortgage rates are forecast to average 6.3%, providing slight relief on affordability, while home prices rise modestly by 2.2%. Existing home sales should increase about 1.7% to 4.13 million – a small gain from 2025's near 30-year low. For-sale inventory will continue recovering, up nearly 9% year over year.
For buyers and sellers, this means a more balanced market: steady price growth, some rate relief, and negotiating power shifting subtly toward buyers. Affordability improves as incomes outpace inflation, with typical mortgage payments dropping below 30% of income for the first time since 2022. Renters, especially in the South, benefit from softening rents.
Vero Beach: A Local Spotlight in Florida's Cooling Market
While national trends point to moderation, local markets vary significantly. In Vero Beach and the broader Treasure Coast region (including Indian River County), 2025 has seen a shift toward buyer-friendly conditions, with increasing inventory, longer days on market, and in many cases, softening or declining prices.
As of late 2025:
- Median home prices in Vero Beach hover around $370,000–$400,000, with some reports showing year-over-year declines of 0.5% to 13% depending on the segment (single-family vs. condo, mainland vs. barrier island).
- Homes are taking 80–93 days to sell, up from previous years, indicating reduced urgency.
- Inventory has risen substantially, pushing the market into balanced or buyer territory in parts of Indian River County.
- The luxury and waterfront segments remain resilient, driven by cash buyers and migration from higher-tax states, with steady appreciation expected in coastal enclaves.
Looking to 2026, Vero Beach is likely to align with broader Florida trends of modest stabilization. Many forecasts suggest Florida prices may bottom out mid-2026 before gradual recovery, influenced by ongoing multifamily supply and potential rate easing. The area's appeal – serene beaches, no state income tax, and relative affordability compared to South Florida hotspots – should support demand from relocators and retirees.
Forecast Table
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Metric
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2024 Historical Data
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2013–19 Historical Average
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Mortgage Rates
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6.3% (avg); 6.3% (year-end)
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6.6% (avg); 6.3% (year-end)
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6.7% (avg); 6.7% (year-end)
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4.0% (avg)
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Existing-Home Median Price Appreciation (YoY)
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+2.2%
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+2.0%
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+4.5%
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+6.5%
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Existing-Home Sales (YoY | Annual Total)
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+1.7% 4.13 million
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+0.1% 4.07 million
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-0.6% 4.06 million
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+2.1% 5.28 million
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Existing-Home For-Sale Inventory (YoY)
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+8.9%
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+15.2%
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+15.2%
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-3.6%
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Single-Family Home Housing Starts (YoY | Annual)
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+3.1% 1.00 million
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-4.3% 0.97 million
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+6.9% 1.02 million
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0.77 million
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Homeownership Rate
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64.8%
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65.1%
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65.6%
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64.2%
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Rent Growth
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-1.0%
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-1.4%
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-0.6%
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+5.2%
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Home Sales Rise Modestly From Long-Term Lows
Nationally, existing-home sales are projected to edge up 1.7% in 2026 after a flat 2025. Demand remains constrained by high prices and rates, with the mortgage lock-in effect keeping many homeowners sidelined (4 out of 5 have rates below 6%).
In Vero Beach, sales activity has been sluggish in 2025, mirroring Florida's broader cooling. However, increased inventory could spur more transactions in 2026 as buyers gain confidence.
Home Prices Climb, but Not in Real Terms
National prices rise 2.2% nominally in 2026, but real prices may slip as inflation exceeds growth. In Vero Beach, 2025 saw mixed results – some declines in median prices amid higher inventory – with 2026 likely featuring flat to modest gains, especially in desirable coastal and luxury areas.
Affordability Improves as Rates Steady and Incomes Grow
With rates averaging 6.3%, monthly payments are expected to fall 1.3% year over year nationally. In Vero Beach, this could encourage more entry-level and first-time buyers, particularly as new construction and incentives compete with resales.
For-Sale Inventory Recovery Slows, but Outpaces Sales
Inventory grows 8.9% nationally in 2026, tilting toward buyers. Vero Beach has already seen this shift, with months of supply pushing toward buyer-friendly levels in 2025.
National Rent Softening Creates Opportunities – Stronger in the South
Rents decline 1.0% nationally, with greater relief in Southern markets. Florida's robust multifamily pipeline supports this, offering mobility for renters in areas like the Treasure Coast.
New Construction and Economic Context
Builders pull back slightly but provide competition through incentives. Economic growth continues on trend, though risks like policy shifts and labor market softening loom.
Housing Perspectives for 2026
- Buyers (especially first-time): Modest bargaining power gains; consider new builds or fixer-uppers.
- Sellers: Price realistically amid competition; luxury and waterfront hold stronger.
- Renters: Continued relief, with cross-market moves viable.
Local Market Variation: Florida Metros (Including Nearby)
From national forecasts, Florida markets show divergence – e.g., Cape Coral-Fort Myers (-10.2% price growth), North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton (-8.9%), while others like Tampa see milder declines. Vero Beach, not separately listed, trends with Treasure Coast cooling but resilient demand.
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