The Luxury Pulse: October Pending Sales Rise 1.9% – What It Really Means for Buyers and Sellers

The headline from the National Association of Realtors® this morning reads: Pending home sales increased 1.9% in October – the first monthly gain in several months.

At first glance, it feels like a modest “meh.” But dig one layer deeper and the picture for the ultra-luxury segment I specialize in ($15M+) becomes much clearer… and much more bullish.

Here’s the real story behind the numbers:

The West Looked Weak – But That’s Not the Luxury Story

Yes, the West region (which includes California) saw pending sales slip 1.5% month-over-month and a steeper 7.0% year-over-year decline.

Those numbers are dominated by move-up and entry-luxury properties in places like Sacramento, Phoenix, Denver, and the Inland Empire – markets that are still painfully rate-sensitive and inventory-constrained under $3M.

At $15M and above in prime Los Angeles (Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Holmby Hills, Malibu, Bird Streets), we are effectively operating in a different asset class with different drivers. The NAR data simply doesn’t capture it because many of these contracts never hit the public MLS and are therefore excluded from the Pending Home Sales Index.

What I’m seeing on the ground:

• October and November have been two of the busiest off-market months of the entire year.

• We currently have 11 properties under contract above $24M that will never appear in any public pending statistic.

• International and all-cash buyers (who dominate my segment) are not waiting for 6% mortgage rates – they never left.

Affordability Drives the Midwest & South – Architecture & Privacy Drive L.A. Luxury

NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun correctly pointed out that the Midwest “shined” because of better affordability. That dynamic absolutely exists… at the national median price point.

In the stratosphere I operate in, “affordability” isn’t the conversation. The conversation is:

• Which house has the irreplaceable view corridor that can never be built out?

• Which architect’s name makes the dinner-party guest list stop and stare?

• Which property offers true privacy in an age of drones and paparazzi?

Those attributes are in critically short supply, and demand for them has only accelerated since Labor Day.

What the Next 90 Days Actually Look Like for $20M+ Buyers and Sellers

Yun also noted that days-on-market typically lengthen from November through February, giving buyers more negotiating leverage.

Again, that’s true below $10M. Above $20M right now, the leverage is firmly with sellers of exceptional product.

Proof points from the last 30 days in my personal pipeline:

• 1950s Paul R. Williams estate in Holmby Hills – whispered, never listed – multiple offers, closes next week 18% above the 2022 purchase price.

• New SAOTA build in the Bird Streets – pocket listing for 10 days – all-cash offer, 9-day close, $4.2M over ask.

• Trousdale mid-century by Craig Ellwood – restored, off-market – traded in 11 days at full price after three competing cash offers.

Bottom line: The 1.9% national uptick is real, but it understates the strength at the very top end of the Los Angeles market. The best properties continue to move faster and at stronger pricing than at any point in 2023–2024.

If you own a legitimate trophy property and have been waiting for the “right moment,” the data – both public and private – is telling us that moment is now.

If you’re a qualified buyer looking in the $20M–$100M range, the holiday season has become the new prime season for discreet, high-stakes acquisitions.

Let’s talk before the calendar turns.

Ben Bryk Global Luxury Property Specialist

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